Vail Homes

     Nothing adds to the excitement around a ski area than a little snow!  Two feet of snow was dumped on Vail Mountain last weekend by the local snow gods and forecasters are predicting another 4″ to 6″ over the next 24 hour period.   Vail now has over 800 acres of terraine open with Blue Ski Basin scheduled to open this coming weekend.  It’s looking more and more like the 2008-2009 ski season will be normal to above normal.  The National Weather Service is predicting 300 plus inches of snow this season with the heaviest snow falls in the Northern and Central Mountains (read: Vail).

     Beaver Creek is also basking in the recent dump and has over 300 acres of ski terraine open.  It’s World Cup week at the Beave.  Men’s Super G Combined starts things off Thursday followed by the Birds of Prey Downhill (always a gas) on Friday and Men’s Super G and Men’s Giant Slalom on Saturday and Sunday.  The US boys are favored to take time on the podium.  Bodie Miller turned in the fastest practice time Tuesday - well under 2 minutes.

John Nilsson

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      If you haven’t seen the latest issue of Ski Magazine you owe it to yourself to pick up a copy.  In this issue you will find one of the best, most exhaustive articles on Vail and how to enjoy it I’ve ever seen including tips on the best dining, best lodging, best places to Apres’, a great Vail history, and an authentic insider’s guide to how to ski Vail Mountain.

      As a 35 year Vail resident and a densin of Vail Mountain since opening day, 1962, I can vouch for the accuracy of the tips!  If you don’t have a copy, you can check out the article on line at www.skinet.com/ultimatevail.   Enjoy!

John Nilsson

     Vail Mountain opened today to cold and breezy temperatures and “damned ‘ner perfect” (though limited) conditions.  The short term weather forecast calls for light snow this weekend and more to come next week so….it looks like we are off and running! 

      Please click on this link:    http://mail.google.com/a/sonnenalprealestate.com/#inbox/11dbb4f357a84f08  to get the latest detailed news on the season opening and what’s going on in Vail over the next few weeks.

John Nilsson

       Ski season 2008/9 arrived this morning at 8:30 when both Arapahoe Basin and Loveland Basin hit the switches to one lift each.  Don’t expect world class conditions yet - only one short run made slippery by artificial snow grace each ski area this opening day but, then again, its skiing!

       There is an undeclared race to see who can open first each year with the challenge usually being taken up by Loveland Basin, Arapahoe Basin and Keystone.  This year it was a dead heat between the two super high altitude ski areas with Keystone still trying to get into gear. 

       It’s early this year.  Most opening days have occurred within a few days of Halloween over past years.  Cold night time temperatures have allowed snow to be thrown for the last week or so.  Major Colorado Ski areas are planning mid November openings.  Hope this early first run portends a long and snowy slide this winter!

 John Nilsson,  Sonnenalp Real Estate

A recent conference at the University of Denver sheads light on the current Mountain Real Estate market: http://www.vaildaily.com/article/20080812/BIZ/930266408/1005&parentprofile=1062

A wonderful new home displaying the latest science in “Green” construction is now nearing completion at 2338 Chamonix Lane in West Vail.  Bob Stephanoff, builder/owner of the new spec home, admits it costs more and takes a good deal more effort to build a truly “Green” home, but it’s worth it.  Read the full article by clicking this link:  

http://www.realvail.com/RealEstate/259/New-home-breaks-environmental-ground-in-Vail.html
 

     Human nature will not let anything of consequence happen until there seems to be no other choice.   Residents of the mountain communities as well as front range commuters to the ski resorts have been witnessing a rapid collapse of the the I-70 corridor from Denver to Vail for some time now.  Traffic during holidays and weekends has started to try the patience of just about everyone.  Unfortunately, up until now, there has only been bickering between the groups who think they have a solution to this vexing problem.  With numerous lengthy closures to I-70 this winter, traffic to and from Vail is now becoming the 800# gorilla that requires consensus…..NOW.

      Last week, longtime adversaries in this multifacited argument evidently came to terms on a compromise solution that will start attacking the problem of how we get there and get back.  For years now, the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) has been advocating more of the same - adding additional lanes to the I-70 corrider.  The opposition, which includes many of the moutain communities along the I-70 corridor, have resisted widening the highway and have been lobbying for some new solutions, including investigation of either a rail system or even a monorail system that could link Denver International Airport to Vail -Eagle Regional Airport.  The agreement includes widening of several sections of I-70 in current bottleneck areas but not through the opposing communities of Idaho Springs and Georgetown.  This would require another tunnel bore at the Idaho Springs Twin Tunnel and most likely a third bore for the Eisenhower Tunnel.  In addition, widening of I-70 from Silver Plume through Summit County, improvements to Vail Pass and several interchange upgrades would be accomplished.   In return, CDOT has finally committed  to consider a mass transit system - something they have been doggedly fighting for years.

       Everyone party to the agreement admits that the proposed changes are limited in scope and effectiveness.  Naturally, this progress will require tons of impact studies - all of which will be the basis for many colorful fights to come.  By CDOT’s estimates, it will take until 2020 to fund and build these limited improvements.  No estimate has been offered as to when a mass transit system can be agreed to.

       As always, public works projects take a lot of time and it will take until at least 2020 to fund and complete even the limited proposed improvements.   It is unfortunate that the plan everyone seems to have agreed on (though not yet documented) is at best a band-aid that will obviously be inadequate even before it has been completed.  Indeed, one CDOT study reveals that by 2020, traffic congestion that is now common to weekend and holiday travelers will by then be a daily event.    I personally believe that the only real fix to the problem is providing modern, high speed public transit to and from the lifts.  While many are saying  that Americans won’t use mass transit, it’s becoming more and more apparent that we just can’t continue to do things the old way.  The choice between a relaxed, weather-worry-free, one hour ride to the slopes versus a nerve-racking 4 hour drive (each way) at $10 per gallon seems to me to be a no brainer.   Opponents argue that the technology a monorail system that would fulfill our needs doesn’t exist.  Then again, we put a man on the moon.  We need an Out of the Box solution here.  Perhaps this agreement between factions who have been warring for 10 years is the first step.

John Nilsson 

In a totally unexpected and unprecedented move, Vail Resorts (the parent company of the Vail skiing experience), has come up with something unbelievably novel: They have made a lift ticket at their 5 world class resorts LESS expensive…..and they have done it in a very big way.

Just last week, the Boulder, CO based owner of Vail Mountain announced the Epic Ski Pass. And EPIC it is. Instead of raising lift rates for next year as they have since Vail’s inception in 1962, they have slashed the price of a lift ticket by offering a full season, unlimited and unrestricted pass for only $579.00. This price goes to anyone who wants to step up and put down a $49.00 deposit. I don’t think I need to elaborate how exciting this is when you consider a single day lift ticket here in Vail costs $92.00 right now and a comparable full season ski pass for this season set you back over $2,000.00. The Epic Pass is good for all 5 Vail Resorts owned ski areas: Vail, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, Keystone and Heavenly Valley (you can ski any of them on the same pass) and there are absolutely no “blackout days”. You now have a complete season of unlimited skiing available to you at the same price as this year’s limited 10 day Colorado Card!

What’s the Catch? There ain’t any.

What a refreshing idea: Provide the absolute best skiing experience at a dramatically lowered price. This move will undoubtedly greatly enhance Vail’s brand loyalty and will have unparalleled positive ramifications on our Valley’s economy. Every other ski area owner/operator must be choking! Get your Epic Pass now (don’t wait as prices will most likely go up) by logging on to www.snow.com and clicking on the Epic Pass link. You can reserve your pass for $49.00. I’m sure I’ll see a lot more of you next year! Way to be, Vail Resorts!!

       So says Treavor Theelke at Land Title Guarantee in his monthly sales activity report. I’d say he’s right. Eagle County sales, which were showing a downward trend in the last quarter of 2007, turned in the lowest number of transactions since 1996 with 104 sales - just 72% of sales recorded in January of 2007. The high end of the market remained strong in January with 6 transactions of over $4,000,000. Conditions in the national market are obviously coming to roost here in the Eagle Valley.

       What does this mean to you and I? First, we can no longer cruise along with our heads in the sand fantasizing that we are insulated from national economic upheavals. Even though our area is financially much stronger by a long shot than most of the US, we must eventually fall victim to at least the increasingly dour media that pervades our modern life. Even people who now have cash to spend on a vacation home in Vail must be injecting into their buying decision some consideration of the general financial markets and how the drying up of liquidity will effect them in the near future. Once we accept that 1)real estate is cyclical (I’ve seen 3 such market adjustments in my 32 years in the local real estate business) like just about everything else, and 2) that down-cycles beget up-cycles and are, in fact, healthy for the market, things don’t look so bad.

       To date, neither Sonnenalp Real Estate nor I have felt the negative effects of the national real estate/financial malaise but it is my feeling that we are in the midst of a major readjustment in our local supply/demand equation. Demand is dropping, supply is expanding, and it’s a fact of life that Buyers always realize this before Sellers realize it (or want to accept it). Deals are not getting done now and won’t get done until Sellers accept the fact that more and more Sellers are starting to chase fewer and fewer buyers.

       A positive approach is the only way to solve any problem. No matter what the condition of the Market, Real estate changes hands due to a successful blending of Price, Terms, Condition and Marketing. As a Seller in a tightening market you must be even more adept in your understanding of these factors to be competitive. You’ve got to stand out in every way you can.

       First, the Condition of your property must be as good as it possibly can be. Know that there are most likely 3 or 4 properties that are similar to yours that bear that rarer buyer’s attention. Maybe now is the time to sit down and analyse what should and must be done to improve your property’s condition. Anything “Dog Eared” will kill you. Also, make sure everything from windows to carpet to furniture is spotlessly clean. Attention to detail is all-important now.

      Second, make sure your marketing team is aggressive and visible and has a positive, problem solving attitude. It’s really easy for a broker or a brokerage company to get depressed in a slower market and stop doing the right things - like spending money on marketing your property! The wrong attitude here can be devastating in a slower market.

       The Third Factor - Terms - is not currently an issue with interest rates low and a lot of cash in the pockets of Buyers. Know, however, that a liquidity crunch will effect even the strongest of Buyers. While they may have cash for your property, if a business loan dries up that cash is going somewhere else other than into a vacation home! It may soon be the case that “creative financing” and owner carry financing will again be an important factor in getting a sale finalized.

       Finally the Painful Factor….Price. If you’ve paid attention to the three previous parts of the equation and your property is still sitting, you must accept the fact that it is up to you (and only you) to bridge the gap between your property and the market by adjusting your price downward to meet the buyer’s requirements. That Buyer is certainly not going to come up to you in this market! When all else is said and done, only the realization that bringing your property’s price in line with the new supply/demand reality is going to get the job done for you.

       One last bit of advice to Sellers if they want to be successful in today’s real estate market: 1) Most real buyers in today’s market are not trying to steal from you. They just have a vastly larger load of reasons why they should not buy your property, and 2) If you find a real Buyer for your property, treat that Buyer like he is the last Buyer you are going to see for the next 12 months (he quite possibly may be)…. and then act accordingly!

John Nilsson

Eagle County property owners knew their valuations had gone up several months ago. Every two years the State of Colorado requires Counties to re-assess local property values to reflect current actual valuations. Counties carry out this task and notify property owners of their actual valuations at the end of the appraisal period. These property owners then have a period of time to contest their valuations. No one was surprised to find that valuations have risen dramatically over the last two years in Eagle County - in some cases as much as 40% to 50%.

The problem came home to roost last month when tax bills were sent out. While most owners knew their valuations had gone up dramatically, the common understanding was that actual property tax increases were limited by state statute to a small percent per year due to a bill past several years ago by representative Doug Bruce. The “Bruce Bill” limited increases in tax collections to a small percentage per year no matter how much the actual valuation increased. Unfortunately, individual counties were given the the right to “De-Bruce” their tax billings by public vote and many counties, including Eagle County had off-year referendums authorizing this “de-bruseing”. Many voters did not understand the ramifications of approving these referendums - in fact, there are now no limits to how much the individual taxing districts can raise their individual mill levy requests. Thus, many local property owners are facing property tax increases of over 40% this year. Painful as it is to most local property owners, Eagle County Property Taxes are still very reasonable when compared to many other parts of the country.

For more information, please see the following link: http://www.vaildaily.com/article/20080218/NEWS/618114539